Five Decades Ahead of Consensus
Each opportunity was identified early, then converted into a transaction, a business, or a repositioning.
| 1970 |
Index investing would outperform active management. Credited in A Random Walk Down Wall Street — Burton Malkiel (2 million copies). Helped spark the index investing revolution; index funds today represent 60% of U.S. equity fund assets. |
| 1976 |
LNG would become a significant source of global energy. Negotiated contracts for the largest LNG carrier with Algeria and U.S. utilities, anticipating a market that now represents 15% of global gas supply and has delivered 11% CAGR as an investment category over five decades. |
| 1978 |
African consumer markets offered major untapped potential. Introduced Avon Products to Africa, reversed board reluctance, and established two of its most profitable subsidiaries in Nigeria and Côte d’Ivoire. |
| 1982 |
China’s manufacturing advantage would reshape global supply chains. China’s opening would create first-mover advantages for Western firms willing to act before the opportunity was obvious. Working with Richard Holbrooke, former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State, I initiated the first PRC/Fortune 500 joint venture at Lehman Brothers, partnering Campbell’s Soup with Chinese manufacturers. |
| 1985 |
Financial innovation: LBOs – HYB High-yield financing would broaden capital access, enabling both acquisitions of undervalued companies and the funding of high growth disruptive companies that traditional financing would not support. Founded the Transactions Development Group at Drexel Burnham Lambert in Los Angeles under Mike Milken. |
| 1991 |
The global economy would shift toward Asia. The global economy’s center of gravity was shifting toward Asia. Co-founded the first private equity firm with an Asian lead capital partner, Sanwa Bank, then the world’s largest bank. |
| 1999 |
The cloud makes computational power globally available. Cloud infrastructure would make enterprise-grade computing universally accessible, eliminating the capital barrier that kept smaller firms at a permanent disadvantage. Co-founded Telephony@Work, one of the first cloud/SaaS companies. I recruited the former President of American Express as President and obtained AT&T as a reference client through my relationship with an AT&T director. Telephony@Work was subsequently acquired by Oracle. The core founding team went on to build two additional companies, subsequently acquired by Five9 (which reached a $13B+ valuation) and Nextiva respectively. I raised the A round for the third, remain an investor, and have maintained a 25+ year relationship with the team. |
Each insight was converted into a transaction, a business, or a repositioning that created sustained value. That is the difference between foresight and a track record.
The Pattern
Index investing. LNG energy. African consumer markets. China manufacturing. High-yield bonds. Asia’s economic rise. Cloud computing. Each was an unrecognized opportunity when first identified. Each became a multi-billion-dollar reality. The question for your business is what the next one is — and whether you are positioned for it.