The FutureSo where is all this taking us?
In the words of the legendary screenwriter, William Goldman (2 Oscars, Butch Cassidy, Marathon Man, All the President’s Men, etc.), when he was asked about what films would be successful commercially: “Nobody knows anything.”
So, with that caveat, let’s try our crystal ball . . .
For some context, it is estimated that currently only about 13% of businesses have fully realized the impacts of their Industry 4.0 investments.
Your car will never break down.
A car will continuously transmit information which AI will compare against its ever-growing library of data to predict when that car’s systems may fail. You will be automatically requested to bring your car in for service before that failure occurs.
Supply chains will “evaporate” and inventories will shrink dramatically.
As factories become ever more automated, the advantage that countries with low labor costs have will disappear, especially when a long supply chain increases the risk of interruption, ties up capital, and involves transportation costs. Furthermore, manufacturers will send plans via the internet for the object being produced to anywhere in the world, where authorized fabricators can make virtually any product with 3D printing.
Developing countries will no longer be able to “bootstrap” their development with low-cost labor.
Automation/robotics will eliminate labor cost as a factor of production. This has important societal implications for the economic gap between the industrialized world and the non-industrial world. Real tensions will increase without a clear path for a country’s economic improvement.
Industries will become “winner take all”.
Since data is the “oil” of AI, each category leader will enjoy a huge advantage since it will have the most data to refine its products and processes, which become self-reinforcing leading to potential monopoly power.
AI will identify completely new predictive relationships.
The speed with which a consumer completes an online credit application is an indicator of his/her creditworthiness: Ant Financial
Checks, credit cards and cash will become obsolete.
More than half of the Chinese population uses mobile payments each quarter.
AI alone will add 15+% ($15.7 trillion) to global GDP by 2030.
45% of total economic gains by 2030 will come from product enhancements, stimulating consumer demand. This is because AI will drive greater product variety, with increased personalisation, attractiveness and affordability over time.
The greatest economic gains from AI will be in China (26% boost to GDP in 2030) and North America (14.5% boost), equivalent to a total of $10.7 trillion and accounting for almost 70% of the global economic impact.
Pre-authorization for healthcare procedures may be decided instantly.